Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this
afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western
New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. 
Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central
Appalachians...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough
over Ontario and the Great Lakes.  A speed max initially over
northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into
the Lower Great Lakes through early evening.  Strong, attendant
forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread
southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. 
Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep
eastward.  A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward
through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the
mid to upper 50s.  Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will
act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by
mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front.  Forecast
soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon
and weakened convective inhibition.  The nose of the cyclonically
curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to
effective shear 35-50 kt.

The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring
over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z.  This initial
development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer
shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable
lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a
transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear
segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front.
As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should
quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern
OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly
narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with
the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less
unstable airmass in the central Appalachians.

..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east
over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will
shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern
U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing
across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the
cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early
afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front
will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F
dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating
will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake
Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will
preclude severe thunderstorm potential. 

Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will
strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of
Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida
Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is
not expected through early Tuesday morning.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2024

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

...17z Update...
The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and
windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great
Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded
slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy
conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a
few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains
largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 10/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region
will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced
mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward,
draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching
parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently,
gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the
afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest.
Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent
range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at
least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area
delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for
the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio
and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...